Temporal changes in the serial interval distributions of COVID-19 in Hong Kong
Abstract
Serial intervals represent the time delay between illness onset in successive cases in chains of
transmission. The serial interval distribution is often used as a proxy for the generation time
distribution, representing the time delay between successive infections in transmission chains, since
infections are generally unobservable while illness onset dates are observable. The serial interval
distribution is a key input into common approaches to estimate the time-varying reproductive rate.
In this study, we examined detailed contact tracing data on laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19
in Hong Kong between 1 January and 30 September 2020, and identified 860 pairs of cases with
clear epidemiological links between infector and infectee, representing approximately 30% of all
confirmed cases. Analysis of these 860 pairs identified a mean serial interval of 4.2 days and
standard deviation of 5.0 days, with 102 (11%) observed serial intervals being negative. We found
clear changes over time in serial intervals, with longer serial intervals of mean 6 days during the
rising phase of a community epidemic, declining to a low mean of 2 days when incidence fell due to
effective control measures. We were able to correlate the changes in serial intervals with more
timely isolation of potential infectors, consistent with our hypothesis that this would reduce postsymptomatic transmission but not necessarily pre-symptomatic transmission. Methodological
developments are now needed to account for changing serial interval distributions when estimating
reproductive rates.
Resource Type
Addition Details
Date:
2022-07-18
Wave of COVID:
5th
Category:
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